Climate projections as message

Climate projections have become a major task of climate modeling. The interest in predicting future climate change is of relatively recent origin and emerged during the 1970s. Climate projections consist of enormously complex data collection, data processing and simulation efforts. As the vast amount of data resulting from simulations is difficult to understand, interpret and communicate, climate modelers have contributed two unique inventions: 1) the definition of a global mean temperature as an artificial parameter and 2) the depiction of global mean temperature change on a graph as a powerful graphical language (see also William W. Kellogg and James E. Hansen). Both inventions originated from the mid-1970s, but quickly became a part of the emerging scientific culture of climate prediction.

This is a selection of figures that show different projections of climate change into the future; a genealogy of climate projections:

Climate projections are important, because they provide relevant scientific information about climate change. They tell us that future climate will change. These projections are based on computer simulations with complex Earth-System Models. Most of them suggest that global mean temperature may rise several degrees in the decades to come. These projections have gained significant scientific and political authority and raised enormous attention.

Climate projections as a historical phenomenon

At the same time, climate projections raise further questions and invite to further analysis. While projections of climate change vary according to assumptions regarding future socio-economic developments, estimates about likely future warming remained more or less stable since about four decades.

[Projections as message]

[Projections as phenomenon]

This web-exhibition takes a different look at climate projections: it grasps them as a historical phenomenon. Climate projections have emerged at a certain point in time within specific historical contexts. They are based on specific scientific methods. They have been crafted by scientists of particular disciplines in specific ways, furnished with specific types of information. They respond to particular questions and interests...